tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post975953939540245241..comments2023-11-05T00:25:53.153-07:00Comments on Jon Davies Severe Weather Notes: Unexpected tornadoes in North Carolina on 3/27/09, while snowstorm raged in the PlainsJon Davieshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14044746324804312344noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post-37728399957944155412009-09-29T16:03:54.918-07:002009-09-29T16:03:54.918-07:00This reminds me a lot of the F4 tornado that hit t...This reminds me a lot of the F4 tornado that hit the Raleigh area on Nov 28, 1988. There was no outlook for severe weather, then this storm exploded into a supercell and produced a tornado that would track a path about 82 miles long. At it's worst damage area, it was rated F4 on the Fujita damage scale. I remember 4 people were killed in that twister, which was actually an amazingly low number. It happened overnight. I remember telling my brother, (Mark my words, I guarantee you somewhere tonight there will be a tornado in N.C.). I just didn't think it would be one of that magnitude. The storm was like a time lapsed video, just constant lightning striking without a chance of total darkness in the night sky. It was a bad twister. I live in Oklahoma now and chase these storms.torn80cjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12454049251676068602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post-70956602181501056752009-06-20T19:54:13.020-07:002009-06-20T19:54:13.020-07:00I was the guy that took the pic for WRAL. I have o...I was the guy that took the pic for WRAL. I have over 2:00 of video of it on Hi-Def if you ever what to see it. Just let me know. <br /><br />ncloshb@gmail.comUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00140795545576118072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post-67069403610221761592009-03-31T17:50:00.000-07:002009-03-31T17:50:00.000-07:00Good comments, Rich. I agree... a really tough si...Good comments, Rich. <BR/><BR/>I agree... a really tough situation to pick out. I missed it when looking at severe potential over the southeast U.S. on Friday morning. The moisture axis, surface boundary, and rather strong short wave aloft might have bemen a tip off to check out the area more closely. But I agree that it's hard to notice such setups when so much else is going on, and standard parameters like total CAPE, EHI, and STP don't highlight them.<BR/><BR/>Good to see you in Denver last month, and thanks for the post!Jon Davieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14044746324804312344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post-8539362005534310042009-03-31T05:02:00.000-07:002009-03-31T05:02:00.000-07:00Nice write up, Jon. One of the most difficult asp...Nice write up, Jon. One of the most difficult aspects of these events is that they almost never seem to occur in isolation. Other severe threat areas serve as distractions (e.g., the complex scenario that same day from FL to TX/OK, including the blizzard), and we simply didn't recognize the threat in SC/NC until it was too late.<BR/><BR/>Forecast routines can certainly be modified to place the appropriate emphasis on CAPE and its vertical distribution. But, as you know, it's not as simple as saying "you don't need much CAPE to get tornadoes". That statement is true *in the right circumstances*. Weak instability typically works best in moist environments with boundaries and lots of vorticity sources, without excessive deep layer vertical shear. <BR/><BR/>We'll see if we can catch the next one...chumpsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17833462415829040550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post-22427752715369533512009-03-30T06:35:00.000-07:002009-03-30T06:35:00.000-07:00Thanks for the comment, Adam. These small CAPE tor...Thanks for the comment, Adam. These small CAPE tornado settings are certainly very interesting. <BR/><BR/>I didn't get around to responding to your post last week, but it was great to meet you and fellow northeast Illinois chasers at the DuPage Seminar a couple weeks ago. You guys keep up the good work!Jon Davieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14044746324804312344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2399626414603781513.post-54582029669776891602009-03-29T23:34:00.000-07:002009-03-29T23:34:00.000-07:00awesome write up, proof that you dont need 1000+ C...awesome write up, proof that you dont need 1000+ CAPE to get things going. Thats why I dont get why so many chasers bad mouth a setup that doesnt have CAPE screaming off the charts.Adam Lhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02817121976337454536noreply@blogger.com